Do Russia’s attacks on power infrastructure drive forced migration from Ukraine?

By late December 2024, Russia had launched 13 major attacks on Ukraine’s critical infrastructure, notably power plants, heating plants and boiler stations, but also hospitals and schools. This continued into January 2025. As a consequence of such attacks, the Helmholtz Centre Berlin, among others, concludes that “many of the combined heat and power plants and cogeneration plants are damaged, and there isn’t enough electricity to go around, which means that control systems and pumps can temporarily shut down. As a result, poorly insulated homes, particularly in urban areas, have less heating. This leads to unacceptable conditions for residents – especially children, the elderly and the sick – and will drive more people to flee, even from areas not directly affected by the fighting”. The energy situation in Ukraine may seem dire at first glance, but a closer look reveals it is less severe than anticipated.

This brief assesses the state of Ukraine’s energy system, and its impact on the population, and discusses the potential for further forced migration to the EU.

Key takeaways:

• Surveys show that lack of electricity, heating and water can drive forced migration
• By January 2025, 80% of Ukraine’s energy infrastructure has been damaged or destroyed. However, the heating system remains largely intact.
• Pre-war overcapacities, a drop in demand, rationing, quick repairs, energy and fuel imports, generator imports, and Western aid prevented the collapse of Ukraine’s energy system.
• 8% of all households, notably in rural areas, have alternative heating sources such as wood or coal burners.
• As a result, there has been little to no net forced migration due to Russia’s attacks of Ukraine’s energy system.