ICMPD Migration Outlook Eastern Europe and Central Asia 2024

The Regional Migration Outlook for Eastern Europe and Central Asia (EECA) presents an analysis of the key events and trends that shaped migration in the EECA region in 2023. Simultaneously, it offers a cautious outlook into areas and issues that may affect migration and mobility to, within and from EECA in 2024. In a non-exhaustive way, the publication addresses developments in the twelve EECA countries (based on ICMPD’s regional division) – Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Moldova, Russia, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Ukraine, and Uzbekistan. The analysis is based on ICMPD’s regional expertise and desk research from official and public data sources.

The publication forecasts eight migration issues to look out for in 2024:

1. Protracted large-scale displacement due to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

2. Decisive debate on the future of temporary protection for Ukrainian beneficiaries in Europe.

3. Precarity of the situation for Russian emigrants in non-EU host states
and their attempts to reach the EU.

4. Russia’s quest for labour force beyond Central Asia.

5. The end of “Republic of Artsakh” and its unknown implications on the decades-old conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan, further displacement and migration dynamics in the region.

6. Central Asia's "immigration dividend", emanating from skilled Russians who entered in 2022, and prospects of stability amidst regional turmoil.

7. The growing role of the EU as a destination for EECA labour migrants.

8. EU approximation as a key driver for development and reform in Ukraine, Moldova, and Georgia.