ICMPD Migration Outlook Eastern Europe and Central Asia 2025

The Eastern Europe and Central Asia (EECA) Migration Outlook presents an analysis of the key events and trends that shaped migration in the EECA region in 2024. Simultaneously, it offers a cautious outlook into areas and issues that may affect migration and mobility to, within and from EECA in 2025. In a non-exhaustive way, the publication addresses related developments in the twelve EECA countries – Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Moldova, Russia, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Ukraine, and Uzbekistan. The analysis is based on ICMPD’s regional expertise and desk research from official and public data sources to ensure grounded understanding of regional dynamics. 

The publication forecasts six migration issues to look out for in 2025:

- Millions of Ukrainians staying abroad and uprooted internally remain navigating the uncertainty of prolonged displacement

- The road to end ‘temporariness’ for Ukrainian beneficiaries of temporary protection in the EU and avoid a ‘closing-door-panic’

- Central Asian Labour Migration at a Crossroads

- Post-conflict displacement in Armenia

- The non-linear paths to EU membership of Ukraine, Moldova, and Georgia, and EU-Armenia approximation

- ‘Security-first’ approaches making migration policies more restrictive