How many more Ukrainians could flee if Russia wins the war?

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has precipitated a significant displacement crisis, resulting in millions of Ukrainians and hundreds of thousands foreign residents and immigrants fleeing the country. As of early 2024, up to 10.8 mio persons remain displaced within and outside Ukraine. The potential for further displacement looms large if Russia gains more ground or if Ukraine loses the fight for its sovereignty.

In this webinar, Dr Franck Düvell presented the latest Prague Process Policy Brief on forced migration from Ukraine. He outlined four potential war scenarios, each accompanied by corresponding forced migration flows, with the number of displaced individuals reaching up to 19 mio under the most severe scenario. These forecasts are based on a methodology, which demonstrated a high degree of accuracy in predicting the number of forcibly displaced in early 2022.

Read the full publication here in English and here in Russian.