Scenarios of War and Forced Migration from Ukraine: How many more Ukrainians could flee if Russia wins?
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This is the third Prague Process Policy brief on the topic of forced migration from Ukraine as the direct result of Russia’s military aggression. In this iteration, the brief deliberates forced migration flows from Ukraine under four potential war scenarios, ranging between a stalemate situation to a hypothetical victory of Russia. These scenarios are informed by observed migration patterns to date. The brief utilises the methodology developed by the author in 2021, which allowed to predict the number of forcibly displaced in early 2022 with a high degree of accuracy. Subsequently, this method has been continually refined to account for newly available data.